Of course, not all exponential growth is the same. In the case of monkeys, we’re not talking about 10,000 cases of COVID turning into 20,000 in just a few days. We are talking about 10 cases that have become 20.
However, we have learned from the pain of the two-year pandemic that if growth continues exponentially, small numbers of infections can quickly turn into large numbers.
Virologist Trevor Bedford has observed monkey disease in various countries and observed a dangerous trend. Scientists may have discovered many cases recently because they are now looking for them. However, the fact that the growth is so similar in different places shows that the virus is really spreading in the community. He thinks this is not an artifact of observation. This is proof of transfer.
In the UK, Portugal and Spain, there may still be improvements in national performance in the last 11 days, but a similar doubling of 8-10 days in these three countries suggests that this growth rate may largely reflect broadcast dynamics. 7/10
– Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) June 3, 2022
Many of these infections occur in the high-sex population, so it is unlikely that this growth rate will be maintained in the general population. However, this observed growth rate is still worrying. 9/10
– Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) June 3, 2022
We have all seen this movie. The end is not wonderful.
There is good news. According to CNN, 643 cases of monkey disease have been reported outside Africa. As far as I know, no one was killed. In the early days of the global epidemic, we were told that there were two known strains of the virus in Africa, one with a mortality rate of about one percent and the other with a mortality rate of 10 percent (!). Outside of Africa, a low of 643 for monkeys may indicate that the African mortality rate is due to a lack of basic health care rather than congenital virulence. Fortunately, the virus is less prone to aggressive mutations than, say, COVID. Because its genome is made of double-stranded DNA, not single-stranded RNA, like SARS-CoV-2, it will not change quickly, CNN notes.
At the same time, there is growing evidence that gay men are subpopulations at risk of infection. The number of confirmed cases in the United States has doubled in the past week to 20, but “[o]Of the 17 patients who provided detailed information to the CDC, 16 were found to be men who had sex with men. This is in line with what scientists in other countries have seen. Monkeypox was not traditionally STIs – it was previously spread through droplets in the air in constant contact – but five years ago, an epidemic in Nigeria was found to have a sexual component.
In Nigeria, for the first time, doctors have received signals for a new model that will be replicated around the world. Most of the patients were men and most of them had genital warts, which suggests sexual transmission. Four years later, many cases in Europe and America are also found in men and are characterized by genital lesions. “It seems to me like deja vu,” says Dimi Ogoyna, a doctor at Niger Delta University Teaching Hospital, who treated the first and subsequent cases of smallpox in Nigeria in 2017. Physical contact with infectious ulcers and scabies, but sexual intercourse, in particular, was never high on the list of risks of infection. (Previous cases have been associated with wildlife or domestic use.) The unusual appearance and unusual size of the epidemic in Nigeria should be a sign that something has changed for monkeys. But the world did not pay attention to it until the evening, and the global epidemic is now underway.
Read this again. A similar strain of smallpox, now prevalent in the West, was reported in Africa * five years ago. But because Westerners have turned a blind eye to the epidemic in Africa (always there is) one thing spread there ”) until the resources spread across the continent and eventually to Europe and the United States.
Researchers have linked the “new” monkey pox to a disease that has been spreading in Africa for many years. “It’s [new] The study, a genetic sequence, shows that the first cases of monkey disease in 2022 appear to have been caused by epidemics in Singapore, Israel, Nigeria and the United Kingdom between 2017 and 2019, ”CNN reported. However, this is not the only surprising fact that contains genetic information: It seems that the current global epidemic is in fact two different epidemics, each of which is caused by a separate lineage of the virus. CDC researchers analyzed 10 virus samples from patients in the United States and found that three of them were genetically different from samples collected in Europe. All three samples were taken from people who traveled abroad to different locations — Nigeria, West Africa, and East Africa / the Middle East.
The best attempt by experts to explain the two-way epidemic is that monkeys have been at a low level for a long time. Which one … convincing, I think? If it has several years to ignite explosive growth and it doesn’t, it means it’s hard to give up. On the other hand, since it is now well-established in Western populations, there may be no way to get rid of it. Only five cases have been reported in New York, but health officials there say it’s enough evidence that the community is spreading, and it may be “too late to cover.” The scary scenario is that it jumps from humans to native animals and then becomes a “reservoir” for the endemic virus in the wild. It was not caused by smallpox in the United States in 2003, but by other viruses, such as West Nile.
I leave you with this part of The Atlantic magazine, which increases the likelihood of a widespread infection leading to the evolution of the virus. It can be mutated gradually, but it is It hurts Mutation to be healthy. The quote states: “Poxviruses can accumulate mutations at a slower rate of one or two per year, but there are 47 mutations in the genomes by 2022. Interestingly, almost all changes in the genetic code range from TC to TT or GA to AA. This is unlikely to be due to a random copy error; Instead, it resembles the signature of an immune system found in both humans and animals, and it mutates in an attempt to kill the virus. ” The more people are infected, the more mutations occur.